welcome to our weekly forex market analysis cult and this is in preparation
for trading from April 30th to May for 2018 just a quick disclaimer before we
get started this is for educational purposes only trading is a risky
business so please be careful with your money
all right so we'll start off by taking a look at our calendar here as usual we'll
start we'll take a look at the entire week and let's see what's going on
holiday to start the week up here in Japan in China and we have a PMI numbers
coming out for China so keep that in mind
because they will have an impact on our New Zealand and Australian dollars they
generally tend to and for New Zealand here we have a business confidence
number coming up it was negative the last time so if it comes up negative
again that would be bad for New Zealand Dollars or we could see a drop in New
Zealand US dollar there and then we also have for Australia we have the Reserve
Bank of Australia or governor now speaking so the central banks are
becoming more important and what we want to pay attention to there are their
comments in regards to the economy so if they if they talk about any comment or
they mentioned something that where it shows that they're not so confident
about the economy that would be negative for for the currency so Australian
dollar per drop based on any such comments that can be taken as negative
for the or sorry for the country there so for the economy
so keep that in mind and then coming up on so not a whole lot of other stuff
there is some other data Chicago PMI will be important here but the important
data here is the rate statement so last week we had ECB and we saw how based on
the comments alone so they didn't change anything but based on the comments are
the we saw a euro dollar to grow a lot so this is why monetary policy in
central bank's right now are becoming very important so just keep that in mind
because if the Reserve Bank of Australia talks about our says anything negative
on the economy or expresses concerns around political geopolitical situation
or around and things like that that would be
negative here so negative four and afford the whatchamacallit it will
be negative for Australian dollar here I'm sorry just give me a one moment here
you
okay so moving on here and we have here European holiday on Tuesday and then we
have manufacturing PMI numbers for for British pound here so we saw negative
data come out of the UK so last few numbers have been a little bit more to
the negative side which are negative impacts on especially on Thursday there
we have negative we saw negative numbers for pound for the U for UK and that had
negative impact so if we see more similar numbers where numbers are
dropping we could see negative further negative
impact on British pound their GDP numbers here for Canada are important so
keep that in mind is M manufacturing numbers are very important as well our
PMI numbers they are very important as well and then we have Bank of Canada
governor pull-off speaking he has spoken in the
past as well and I think everybody kind of knows where the where his stance is
where the Bank of Canada stands so if we get anything new added that will have an
impact but otherwise I think everything is priced in for Canadian dollar New
Zealand dollar employment numbers always have an impact and then we have
construction PMI numbers for British pound again these PMI numbers their
leading indicators for retail sales so they do tend to have an impact when they
come out so now we are coming into a very important thing here so we have ADP
non-farm numbers and then very very important here looking at we have FOMC
this week so I fluency always just like ECB had a big impact FOMC generally
tends to have big impact here as well again the interest rate is not expected
to change here generally they do interest rate hikes when there is
there's a conference schedule so there's no interest rate hike schedule or
markets not expecting here but just like a CV it will be the tone of the the Fed
statement that will drive the market so I would suggest being very careful with
generally it's a market moving activity here news items be mindful of that trade
balance numbers for Australia again it will be very important because Australia
is a big export economy so trade balance numbers will be important and then we
have services PMI numbers again very important for for British pound here
because the UK is a service based economy so if service numbers are not
good that will have a negative impact and then again trade balance numbers
here for Canada and Canada we have there's a knifeless getting renegotiated
right now and so there's a lot of trade uncertainty which the Bank of Canada had
mentioned as well so if the trade balance numbers are negative here for
Canada that will have a negative impact on Canadian dollars or dollar cad and
any of the Canadian dollar crosses will be impacted by that if right now trade
is is it's very important because of everything that's going on around it big
tariffs and things like that so we'll have to pay attention to this number
non-manufacturing PMI numbers again for us it will be important they also have
Swiss National Bank chairman Jordan speaking if their trading is Swiss franc
you want to keep an eye on that and then we have monetary policy statement for
Australia so we have a bunch of these central bank events so be very mindful
of that because generally they are market moving they will have an impact
on that particular currency so here Australian dollar will be impacted and
then on Friday we have non-farm payroll again it's usually is a market moving
events it's really trading the US dollar on Friday here just be mindful of that
because it will move the market so a bunch of important news coming out this
week so just be careful with all of those now let's move on to our charts
here we'll start off by taking a look at euro US dollar a weekly chart so we have
this our little trendline to the downside last week we had a pin bar and
saw a drop based on that we were looking for that drop so we did get that now we
are into this into this lower levels here's the price has dropped and post
ECB we saw a big drop so let's see so what can we expect here now we are into
the support resistance level here so that's why we and we did have pull backs
on a Friday there based on the weekly count of close here this looks a bearish
so I'm looking for price but price could pull back so do do keep that in mind so
that's the kind of move I would expect and then further down like that so
that's what I am looking for biases to the downside based on the big large the
weekly counter close bearish candle close however because we have large
candle do expect pull backs and then further drop so the biases to the
downside for your dollar first target will be 120 50 second would be one point
so nineteen fifty one point when I might zero some bottom of this candle here so
I will look for a pullback and then for the continuation to the downside so
bearish there and then pound has our pound dropped a lot based on those
numbers that we just talked about with this one this is a bearish as well we
have a large bearish candle close here so in this case we could get rid of some
of these lines okay so last week we had talked about this double top we had a
bearish engulfing candle close on the weekly so we were looking for a drop and
here is the drop so now we have finally crossed this to the downside we are
coming into support right here so that's something to keep in mind we are if you
take a look at the overall picture for the last few months there we have just
been in this range so we are in a range bound market we are at the bottom of the
range now for the British Pound so what we need to see here is the biases to the
downside I would be careful of this support at
1.30 700 level because of what could happen is being arranged bottom market
we could just get one of these moves and that's what we have to be mindful up it
could just bounce off at the bottom of the upper range so for now I am looking
for price to drop and buts with caution so I'll just put that in there the bias
will be to the downside and next target for be a 130 for 30 level which is the
bottom of this pin here so that will be the bias but I would be careful of the
bottom of the range there because if you don't see a breakout to the downside
this could go back up towards the middle of the range just like it did here so we
had a nice weekly kind of close and then it pushed up all the way to the top of
the range now we're at the bottom and it could do the same so that's the
cautionary part but based on their weekly close looking for price to drop
further Aussie dollar here Aussie dollar we have seen a couple of weeks of last
week we were looking for a drop so now we have that drop we are almost into
support right here and then further would look for price to drop further
here so we do have weekly counter close to the downside so it is bearish but see
like with this one we had a weekly close and then priced pushed up so we have
seen this drop for several weeks now so we put the price sling up further so we
could get one of those and then a drop all the way into 7500 and then if price
breaks the downside then I would be looking for a further move to the
downside so Aussie dollar is bearish but because we have had this big drop in all
the dollar crosses look for pullbacks now and a good level for pullbacks would
be is 0.76 50 level so this is where we could see some good opportunity to trade
if it stays little diss level looking for a drop and further drop overall bias
is to the downside for Aussie dollar and then we have a New Zealand dollar
here as well so we saw a nice drop again we had a bearish engulfing counter close
previous week and we were looking for a drop which we got so now the fact they
have seen this big drop same thing as I mentioned with Aussie here as well
we could see price pull back kind of like that and so I would be looking at
0.71 50 level and then looking for price to drop further target here would be 69
50 and if price just continued lower second target will be the base of this
candle here which is our support level here at 6800 zero point six eight zero
zero so those are the two targets but this is the target I'm looking for as
0.69 50 so price to pull up and then break down into six 950 so that's the
target biases to the downside dark at has been interesting it's been trading
in this a little arranged for the last few days and this is where we are so
overall candle close has been a bullish but we are into resistance here so this
is the level so if we go down to the daily chart this is where price has been
in stock for the last several days it hasn't been able to break this
resistance level which is a solid resistance level so with this one we
have to be cautious is if it doesn't break this resistance then we could see
the price come down and at this point though based on the weekly I would say
bullish but I would be looking for price to turn here so the big caveat here is
if the price closes above 2900 then I am bullish and I'm looking for move towards
130 120 level backing to the highs here but if the price does not break this
then we could get a head and shoulders type of formation and I will be looking
for this type of a move to the downside and the target would be 1.27 50 level as
the first target so this is a very very critical to see where the price goes to
a hold up up on 2900 and the it would be 130 120 I hold below 120 900
we're looking at a 120 750 as the first target and potentially into 125 20 level
here to the downside so this one we have to because we are into heavy resistance
we have to play it based on what the market shows us Euro Pound here this one
was interesting because we saw the big drop based on first ECB and then we saw
a big push up based on other numbers from from GDP sorry numbers from the
pound and now we have a bullish candle close here bullish pin bar again we are
into some resistance here but the bias is bullish so I would be looking for
price to go higher and the target would be 0.89 50 level to the upsides are
looking for price to go back again bias is bullish for euro pound pound cat here
cat monster pumpkin as well pound cat looking bearish here alright so we have
closed below this resistance level here which is which is good so biases bearish
looking for one 7350 level back into the support level so that is bearish so low
nice and simple okay so yeah looking for a price to drop further into 170 350
level price is very bearish for pound cat euro cat here we have bearish candle
close I like this candle it hasn't been able to break the high here we were into
resistance but hasn't been able to break that so first target would be a 1.54 80
level and below that looking at 1.53 50 level or let's say 50 80 level to the
downside so bias for Euro cab is bearish and looking
to drop further pound Ozzy here huge drop now we have this inefficient move
so it could get filled so be mindful of that but I do like the bearish candle
here so for a number of weeks we haven't been able to break the high which is
really good because it provides a opportunity to potentially short this
and I like the bearish pinbar here so this is this is a nice one but again
because we have had a huge drop here anytime we have such large moves
generally there are pull back so just just keep that in mind which means the
move that we are looking for would be something like this it could go all the
way to the top but it may not because it's already its challenge that that
will so many times so I would look for pull back into 1.82 let's see let's go
to the daily here so this level here 1.82 92 is about 80 300 level that the
vehicle level for a pullback to see this pin right on the other side that's the
so I'm going to leave this pullback level in here so we could see on the
beast and then a further drop now do keep in mind we are coming into the
cattle close right into support which means a pullback is something to to look
for so we could get that go back so biases to the downside and I'm looking
for price to drop further target would be one point 80 50 level which is back
into it is important support and resistance level so that is um actually
could come all the way into one point eight zero zero so 180 is the target
here and biases bearish looking for pullback and then a drop
ah see here I like it's right euro Ozzy I like this one here as well so what we
have here is okay so what we have here is a doji it's a sort of a pin bar
gravestone doji is what the technical term for this one is but it is a sort of
a pin bar so looking for price to drop the main thing here we are seeing is a
rejection of the high so price tested the high and then rejected it so dropped
further I'm looking for price to go lower here as well
1.57 80 will be the target to the downside
so biases bearish for that pound New Zealand here as well
bearish bias we have seen a rejection of this level so let me get rid of some of
these
okay so this pin bar shows a rejection here but there is bullishness here as
well so it could go back up and test this pin on the side and then dropped
from there so bias bias is to the downside and looking for one point to
the 9150 level here to the downside so bearish bias four-pound New Zealand
as well but this is because of that green I would look for a prices pull
back pull back up first and then drop euro New Zealand here this one this one
has more bullishness in it than the other one so I will look for a retest of
the highs it could go all the way to the top here and then we'll have to see how
it plays out at the top here but I'm looking for a price to go and test the
high and then potentially drop from there but if it crosses to the other
side we still have that next high that it could be a good target so this one
this bullish last week so we got the move to the upside but now we are into
resistance and there is this pin on top which means we could see a rejection
here so I would look for some sort of a double top type of formation see if it
drops otherwise if it breaks out then we're looking for another move to the
upside and target would be a 170 480 inductance but so have to just watch
that resistance level let's go on to the yen crosses now we had a big drop here
in pound cannon so we are looking for so we have a nice bearish pinbar
so last week we had the railroad tracks the reversal pattern and now we have a
pin bar so this one I'm looking for price to drop further and the target
here would be 148 50 will be the first target and then a 148 point zu 0 will be
the second target to the downside so pound yen
weekly is bearish euro yen here looking for a drop as well with this one so we
had a nice so we have in this one as well we have that gravestone doji which
is again a little pin bar and now that this one we do have the support level
right here and so biases to the downside 13150 will be the first target and if
price continues lower we're looking for 129 80 is the second target but I do
like the rejection on this and looking for it to drop so euro yen is bearish
now dollar yen here durian is looking a bullish here because US dollar has been
quite bullish as a result of that dollar yen has moved up so with this one
because it's it's bullish candle close I am looking for price to move further and
target here so let's just get rid of about 110 point 40 level or even 50
levels of back into this high will be the target to the upside here again
because they've have a nice big candle here and a bit of a pullback just like
this one pull back and then further move to the upside so dollar yen is looking
bullish Aussie and here this one I didn't do a whole lot it got stuck at
this daily level here see how price is just stuck here so with this one we'll
have to see a drop bias still remains to the downside because previous candle is
bearish but this is completely neutral for this week so we'll just have to see
if it breaks below this 8250 level or not so looking at the daily chart is
where we will will be able to see if it pulls to the downside or not overall
bias still stays to the downside however it's not completely bearish till it
breaks that level Kanyon here hasn't really done a whole
lot we had a draw because it wasn't a fully engulfing candle
that's why there was still that foolishness because this still bullish
this week it's bullish candle close hasn't broken the high so this is
sideways at the moment and because it's range-bound
I'm looking for price to go up into 85 80 level to looking at the daily as we
can see it's been range bound within this so we'll just have to take a look
we'll have to see which way this breaks for it to turn bearish we have to see a
drop below 80 for 30 level here and then a continuation to the downside so this
is sideways for now okay going to let's take a look at gold and we might as well
cover oil while we are added gold here
Gold here is looking a bearish and I will look for price to go back into the
bottom here 13:30 no 425 level so this is range bound for the last
let's see how many months four months it's been arranged bound so it hasn't
been able to break the high and we have a monthly sort of a bearish looking
candle here so with this week looking for price to
drop into this 1304 point twenty five level and and that's it so it's
basically range found looking for to move towards the bottom of the range oil
here what's oil doing oil is neutral so we
have pins on both side neutral right now so we'll have to see which way this one
goes as well and wherever oil goes dollar cad will be impacted as well so
loop if we saw price go up here and Canadian dollar benefited as a result of
that and now it's neutral so this could go either way so when we have a neutral
kind of close it just means we just have to wait and see which way this one's
going to go and both of these options are available for sixty-nine fifty or
sixty six point zero zero here so both of these will be available alright so
that's it for me any questions or comments or anything to
add before we wrap it up
oh just one more thing to mention as I have mentioned in previously I'm doing a
bit of a change in my service offerings and stuff so I'm going to continue the
Forex course or discontinue the Forex course that I offer and I'm going I'll
be sending out an email with so this week after this week I'm going to revamp
that course so for this week I will be dropping the price by $100 so you'll
save about 25% on that and before it gets discontinues if you want to take a
course it's a good time to purchase it so I will be so certain
today it's not ready but as of tomorrow it'll have the link with with $100 drop
in drop in price so if you're interested you can do that I'm Tom I don't do any
elbow based trading it's just purely - purely manual ok perfect so that's it
for now if you guys want to join me I'm doing a lot of back testing as well on
the on the strategy so if you want to join me you can go to my facebook page
that I have let me just pull that up the Facebook group I have a free Facebook
that I have created so I would suggest taking a look at that if you are
interested in joining me for different so I have four days a week I do like
back testings if you want to join me please feel free to go to trading Venus
is the name of the Facebook group alright so that's it for now you guys
have a wonderful rest of the weekend and I will see you again next week bye for
now
you
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