The Outlet Pass: Why the Boston Celtics Are Struggling to Score
Why is Boston's Offense Suddenly so Bad.
Over the past three years, the Boston Celtics ended each regular season with the third, fifth, and second highest assist percentage in the NBA, respectively.
Ball movement was their soul, and—arguably even more so than a well-connected defense—best reflected how Brad Stevens wanted his teams to operate.
Now 51 games into his fifth season as head coach, Stevens's Celtics rank 14th in assist percentage, and a disturbing 22nd since New Year's Day.
Boston owns the NBA's fourth-worst offense over its last 15 games, with only two teams finishing inside the three-point line on a higher percentage of unassisted baskets.
How they got here, and it that relates to a path towards less selfish tendencies, is a slight Catch-22.
Like most teams, the Celtics are less efficient whenever their most gifted player is on the sideline—according to Cleaning the Glass, Boston's offensive rating is 13.7 points per 100 possessions better with Kyrie Irving than without, which ranks in the 99th percentile (!) compared to every other point guard who qualifies.
But one consistent trend has been how Irving's presence affects their assist rate, which is never higher than when Irving is on the bench.
This is not a criticism.
It's also not a coincidence.
During his magical run to a fifth-place finish on the MVP ballot last year, only 9.1 percent of Isaiah Thomas's possessions were isolations, according to Synergy Sports.
Irving is nearly at 16 percent right now.
The Celtics will sometimes feed their All-Star starter just above the elbow, then move fatalistically, deep down knowing how the play is meant to unfold.
Additionally, 64.2 percent of Irving's field goals are unassisted, while Thomas was only at 56.5 percent.
It's not just Irving, though.
Last year, eight Celtics had at least 60 percent of their two-point baskets come by way of an assist (not including Al Horford and Gerald Green, who were at 59 percent).
This year only Aron Baynes, Semi Ojeleye, and Daniel Theis are above that mark.
Stagnancy affects everything, from where the offense fires away (a higher percentage of Boston's field goal attempts are from the mid-range this season) to how frequently it allows them to get quality shots/draw fouls around the rim.
The Celtics are playing slower, sliding away from the analytics-friendly shot chart they spent the last few years warming up to.
(They ranked sixth in the percentage of their shots that were layups last season. Right now, they're down to 23rd.).
The easy explanation for all this change is a shift in personnel—Kelly Olynyk is way, way, way better suited for how Stevens wants to play than Marcus Morris—and just, like, the fact that they're super young and stretching a ton of inexperienced players in roles they otherwise wouldn't have on a top-ranked team.
In 2018, only Theis, Horford, and Irving are shooting above 39 percent from behind the three-point line.
Rozier and Jaylen Brown were each 13-for-46 heading into Monday night's game against the Denver Nuggets, while Morris, Tatum, and Smart were a combined 30 percent.
When your entire team is stuck in a slump, not only will your offense understandably suffer, but the floor will cramp against defenses that can just switch and help without fear of getting torched from deep.
Compounding the issue is a roster that, outside Irving, only enlists two perimeter-oriented shot creators, in Rozier and Smart.
But that duo is noticeably less stoic than last year, thrilled with the first decent shot they see and content with doing a favor for the opposition, especially if their man goes under a screen or gives them the type of space that suggests a pull-up three is exactly what they want to see.
Some of it might be due to an understandable lack of trust, being that so many Celtics logged zero minutes beside one another (or any other NBA players, for that matter) before this season began.
Even Horford, someone whose general demeanor suggests he's never burned the roof of his mouth on a hot slice of pizza, has rushed some shots this year (his odd pull up in transition from just above the free-throw line at Oracle on Saturday night is in some ways a perfect encapsulation of Boston's problems).
But Smart has proven his worth as an intelligent pick-and-roll playmaker, while Rozier is dynamic enough to slither through the first layer of any defense to open up opportunities for teammates elsewhere on the floor.
The patience seen above is exactly what Boston needs more of when Irving isn't in the game.
Shane Larkin passes up a decent look early in the possession, relocates to the opposite wing, then nails a three.
In the six-pass sequence below, the ball swings from side to side.
Just about everybody on the floor drives and cuts with force and makes Denver guard multiple actions before Theis steps out to knock down the open three.
Tatum will be instant offense in due time—picture him with a post game!—but as a 19-year-old rookie he isn't ready to commandeer a second-unit by himself.
Lately he's drifted into these predictable, archaic one-on-one confrontations that don't suit what his current role should be.
Expanding his game is nice, and encouraging him to attack mismatches is great, but too often he does so without rushing the rim and forcing help.
Irving is an illusionist who can basically take whatever shot he wants and have it be graded on a scale from "that probably should've triggered the sprinkler system" to "please pass me a bible.
" His three-point rate has never been higher and Boston boasts a top-five effective field goal percentage when he's on the floor.
But just because Batman exists doesn't mean every police officer in Gotham can retire.
The Celtics should still make more of an effort to run their motion-based offense, use pick-and-rolls to set up other pick-and-rolls, attack closeouts, and get back to the inside-out tactics they had a decent amount of success with last season.
Their offensive woes aren't a debilitating concern because so much of them go back to poor shotmaking in a small sample size.
Their three-point percentage will regress (Boston remains one of the 10 most accurate shooting teams from deep in the league, and they made 17 threes in their most recent game) and things will naturally open up once Gordon Hayward returns next season, solidifying at least one All-Star on the floor at all-times.
In the meantime, it wouldn't hurt for them to get everyone involved a bit more than they currently are.
Its easier said than done, but ultimately necessary if they want to get back to the conference finals.
Dejounte Murray Hitting the Offensive Glass.
Dejounte Murray's stock will never be lower than it is today.
He's shooting 44 percent from the floor and rarely acknowledges the basket's existence when dribbling behind the three-point line; the San Antonio Spurs struggle to generate quality looks when he's on the floor and they really struggle to score at the rim.
My response to that: Buy all the Murray stock you can afford, then sell your X-Box and buy some more.
It may take some time for the 21-year-old to develop a reliable outside shot, but he has intangible qualities—mostly connected to his wingspan and defensive anticipation (among all players who average at least 15 minutes and have appeared in at least 10 games, nobody has a lower defensive rating this season—that rationalize Gregg Popovich's decision to bump him into the starting lineup.
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