greetings and well and welcome from a place called Chevy Chase Circle in
Washington DC along Connecticut Avenue today's coverage focuses on the May 2
2018 earnings announcement and its implications for Tesla Nikola Suz Tesla
based on external similarities and confusion of the marketplace and the
third is we look at software issues that are impacting Tesla in particular we've
been able to track what's been going on with autopilot - and the fact that there
was a small lawsuit in which Tesla is gonna be paying everybody I guess 20
bucks is a small settlement for things not working as planned this is greg for
tesla fan insight thanks once again tits for taking time out to join us if this
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so today is a huge day and it looks like every earnings announcement that comes
out with Tesla is gonna be huge for the foreseeable next couple of quarters
until they get the profitability the numbers came out and Tesla earned a
little bit more than expected and they lost there for a little bit less than
expected they confirmed that the they're producing approximately 2100 units a
week and I believe this does not include the shutdown period where they were
ramping up to be ready to go to 5,000 Tesla has confirmed that they're gonna
need to be producing at about the 5,000 unit per week level in order to get to
cash flow positive and their target is to have that done by June so in theory
by June they should be at about 20,000 units a month being produced looking
forward to rolling up into the six to seven thousand unit per month level so
if you're further down on the line in terms of when you get your car you start
to get a feel for you know how long out it is before you start getting your
vehicle my take on things is that I expected Tesla to come in about these
numbers it was no huge surprise it'll be interesting to see how the stock market
reacts because the initial number pushed the stock price up 10 points and I kept
watching it in on 15-minute increments and now it's down $16 and after hours
trading so I wonder if some really sharp analysts didn't identify a problem that
wasn't it obvious immediately I didn't I expected Tesla to meet or beat us
estimates because a line carefully tracks the stock and Tesla has a whole
bunch of cash sitting in different places on the balance sheet where he can
move it around to sort of improve the story slightly he can't totally to
change the story but it can improve it slightly through cash sleight of hand
that comes with having a lot of cash everywhere that you can work with the
paint a really nice picture so my overall is that I'm happy there
wasn't a disaster I'm happy it didn't take the stock I'm happy that they're
doing too in a week and that they are indeed
planning an and an extra shift and go to three shifts and get the six thousand
cars a week ish that they're hoping to do by June I think all that's still on
the table impossible I guess the only thing that I'd be searching for is a did
they identify the problems they had relative to the shutdown and then
retrofit and then and then kind of moving from there kind of figuring out
what's going on I have to admit I was distracted because a good question was
popping up that I'll be addressing further in our story and I was trying to
make sure I stayed on top of it so in general the numbers weren't off the
chart real bad right in the middle and therefore the stock price is about in
line with what those numbers imply and I think that everything's fine in terms of
the company doing okay and moving forward and there's nothing real crazy
happening the next thing that I wanted to dive into is that Nicola is suing
Tesla now as we've reported and we've been tracking niccola's activities and
what's been happening over time and the conclusion we came to was that Nicola
isn't actually very deep trouble right now and the big problem they're having
is with Tesla coming out with their truck and a whole bunch of what would
have been Niccolo customers aligning with Tesla the disappearance of those
customers are killing the value proposition of nickel are getting going
so the it wasn't an if the question was what was the next move that Nikola was
going to make so their first move was to return all deposits and claim they don't
need the money because they've got a billion in sales then the next move was
just now to sue for two billion dollars and I'm sort of shocked over the basis
of this suit is if you look around the web including Electric CEO etc there I
guess I have three causes of action one Tesla copied them with the mid truck
entry design is one of their claims the second is
that there's a wraparound design for the glass that matches Nicola and I have to
admit the third one I can't remember but those are the two primary the the thing
that's strange to me about the suit is that well I spend all that money you
know on legal ridiculousness when you've got a factory to build and this suggests
to me that things are so bad at Nicola that they're hoping to at least recoup a
few dollars in nuisance lawsuit where you file the suit hoping to get a little
bit of a payoff because it's cheaper to settle than to drag all the litigation
costs out and and go from there so you got to calculate what those numbers are
and I think that you know you know I guess 3 to 5 million bucks to cover
legal fees might be about the number I just have to say that I'm sort of
shocked here because nickel is actually very lucky that Tesla doesn't have time
to deal with them on a countersuit basis because you know basically Tesla has
enough cash and lawyers to run the bill up to basically bankrupt Nicola and
number one number two in my mind I'm not a patent attorney but I've I know at
least a number of them and I've been comparing notes with them on the on the
key basis elements when you file certain suits and if you look at the two trucks
head-to-head you know there's no doubt that with the mid vehicle design and the
the pointy nose of the Tesla truck etc the differences are too great to even
bother you know this is a complete waste of time for everybody involved
but uh you know I'm thinking that you know maybe Nicola can get a few dollars
that they can say to their investors hey it wasn't as bad as it looked we got a
few dollars out of them where we're not as bad off as we thought we were going
to be so the bottom line is that I think it's
a stupid lawsuit they have been sued I do feel sorry for Nicola because Tesla's
capabilities represent a disaster for a nickel a short and long term and the
disaster is that it reduces their market place for selling trucks to a very
narrow number I have to admit I'm the shocking part of the lawsuit is the fact
that Nicola deliberately chose the name Nicola as a way to infringe on the the
patents of the word Tesla because obviously Nikola Tesla was a person
after which they named and by using the first part of the name Nikola basically
was riding on the tails of the success of Tesla so I really think that Nikola
is lucky that Tesla doesn't sue them by the marketing sort of name implication
use that goes on there and I therefore I think that you know the suit is complete
without merit and it you know it's a complete nightmare and I think it's the
last gasp for Nikola before they duck out because the amount of cast they
would need to do what they're talking about doing efficiently it's just so
great that you know I just think they're they're dead duck in the water the next
thing I wanted to dive into and I was requested by one of my viewers there's a
whole area of software issues for Tesla now if you talk with the CTO of Tesla
Elon and company and Tesla really considers it more of a software company
than they do a hardware company so the question is why is it that we have
software issues going on in particular with autopilot - and the answer is Elon
is always in a rush and if you give the company three years or so they can do
what most companies in the case of mobile I'd do in five years
so when Nick Tesla announced that they were going to put out this autopilot -
for those of you got it early it would had very little functionality when you
started compared to what it did previously now if we step forward you'll
notice that over time they're working it out the nightmare to consider here is
that there's this problem which is in the case of mobile and mobile I will be
increasing the number of cameras but their setup was using a camera and rear
one in the front and then they were using radar now those are basically
three data points when Tesla went to hate sensors or eight cameras so now and
I think 14 sensors the issue was you know how do you hand off all that
information about information it has to be handed off on one counter to the
other is it a new vehicle or is it the old vehicle let's say if you go have a
car that goes between two cameras how do you tell what's going on there sort of
with that issue so I bring this up because the bottom line is that when
Tesla went to eight cameras it has a lot of potential it's just it's going to
take another year before it's ready so the reality of software shoes isn't that
Tesla can't handle doing software it's that Elon likes to put out mandates that
are way more aggressive in time than is realistic and therefore you have some
really good engineers that don't look that sharp because it's not working but
they told Elon when it would when it would be ready he just decided that he
wanted it you know in 1/2 or 1/3 the time that was realistic and so it just
takes more time to get done so I don't think there's any mega nightmare there
from a handling software standpoint the final thing I wanted to dive into is
the matter of there was a class-action lawsuit related to the fact that the
highest cost features for the auto pilot - were not available to customers and so
there's a class-action lawsuit evidently everybody that paid up gets about 20
bucks back after legal fees is not a lot after you spend I think an additional
$3,000 plus you're waiting on those features to be approved by the
authorities so I kind of bring this up because you know I've always been like
wait a second how are you selling features at a discount nice you know
which is true that may never be approved or move down the road and so you know I
guess 20 bucks a head isn't a huge cash it for Tesla but I think it is great
that a lot of people decided to pay up I think 35,000 people paid up for this
despite there being delays and when it'll be available so in general I kind
of chose to do a special show at a time we normally don't do it because I wanted
to sort of rotate through what we're seeing in terms of the the numbers I
also wanted to you know sort of jump on this storyline of these earnings that
have come out and where we are with the company and the stock potentially
unfortunately you know it's selling off right now if something drops 16 bucks in
the after-hours it can get back to you know the $300 range where I was trading
at the end of today during the regular market day in New York but $16 down sort
of implies that this sucker could be down 30 bucks or you know 8% once the
market opens on March 3rd which is the Thursday I'm
you know I think at this point you know investors have been patient there's a
lot of misrepresentations of the fact that you know Elon Musk and Tesla is a
bad company they're going out of business all these other things I think
you can really watch the stock price and the investors are saying that we're not
thrilled so it's not $400 but we're not in the doldrums because they're selling
Model S's and X's they've got great new products coming they just have to
produce more model threes and it'll be fine and so at this point we get into
another wait to see if he can do 5,000 units starting in June hopefully early
June based on the shutdown and the modifications that were done you know I
have to admit I have to do more research with the patent folks to learn more
about the merits of their tenth of the anika lawsuit but I really think it's a
nuisance suit and I think a counter suit could result in Nicola losing a lot of
money and screwing up their ability to ever deliver our product but I do think
at this point it's implied that they're in a capitulation mode right now and
instead of trying to win in the marketplace they're trying to win in the
courtroom and I just don't think that there are any there any real grounds for
them to work with because you know the difference of the trucks are just too
great to make that lawsuit work at all again wanted to thank you thank you my
friends from Chile and from other spots that have said hello on here as usual
please take time to like and subscribe could use some support okay drama if you
would we'd love to upgrade our camera situation I'm going to close out today
with a quick take the hammer out and look around what's here in this area so
you guys have a feel it's about 7 o'clock p.m. on May 2
and I'm gonna jump out of the car here and get the outside do you hear going
so we're at Chevy Chase Circle in Washington DC and this is Greg for Tesla
fan insight look forward to any and all questions and statements were running
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